Run a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation against your real strategy stats and a firm's actual rules — find your pass probability, recommended risk, and risk of ruin in seconds.
Adjust the sliders, then run the full 10,000-iteration simulation for an accurate estimate based on your exact rules.
<1.0 Bad · 1.0–1.49 Normal · 1.5–1.99 Good · 2.0–2.99 Very Good · 3.0+ Excellent.
The live preview uses a fast approximation; "Run Simulation" executes 10,000 independent randomized trade sequences against your exact drawdown and profit target rules.
TradeNhance auto-fills these numbers from your synced MT4/MT5/cTrader trades and tracks your live drawdown room every day.
A prop firm challenge calculator estimates your probability of passing a proprietary trading firm's evaluation — based on your win rate, risk-to-reward ratio, position sizing, and the firm's specific rules for profit targets and drawdown limits. Rather than guessing whether your strategy is "good enough" to pass an FTMO, Apex, or Topstep challenge, you can simulate thousands of possible outcomes and see the real numbers.
Each simulated "run" generates a sequence of randomized trade outcomes using your win rate and risk:reward ratio as probabilities — the same way a coin flip with a 55% bias produces a realistic mix of streaks and drawdowns over hundreds of flips. Running this 10,000 times produces a distribution of outcomes: some runs pass quickly, some breach the drawdown limit early, and some run out of time. The percentage that pass without breaching any rule is your estimated pass probability.
This is meaningfully more accurate than simple "expected value" math, because it captures the effect of variance — two strategies with identical expectancy can have very different pass rates depending on how their wins and losses are distributed.
Risk per trade is the single biggest lever you control. Risking too much increases your pass probability in the short run but dramatically increases your risk of ruin — the probability that a losing streak breaches the firm's drawdown limit before you hit the profit target. Risking too little means you may run out of time if the firm enforces a minimum number of trading days. The "recommended risk" figure above is calculated from your profit factor: strategies with a profit factor below 1.2 should risk no more than 0.25% per trade, while strategies above 2.0 can reasonably risk up to 1.0%, adjusted by a quarter-Kelly cap.
The calculator includes preset rules for 39+ firms across forex/CFD and futures, including FTMO, FTMO Swing, Funding Pips, FundedNext, The5ers, MyFundedFX, Alpha Capital, FXIFY, E8 Markets, Blue Guardian, Goat Funded Trader, Topstep, Apex Trader Funding, MyFundedFutures, Tradeify, Bulenox, TakeProfit Trader, and Earn2Trade. Rules change periodically — always confirm current limits on the firm's website before starting a challenge.
This calculator works from numbers you enter manually. If you'd rather have your win rate, risk:reward, and trade pace calculated automatically from your actual MT4, MT5, cTrader, Tradovate, or NinjaTrader trade history — and see your live drawdown room update after every trade — TradeNhance's free plan does that out of the box.